UK foreign policy implications of a new Trump presidency

This commentary was first published by the UK in a Changing Europe.

US presidential elections are undoubtedly the most consequential overseas elections for UK foreign policy. And the election of Donald J. Trump to a second term as US President has greater implications for the UK than the average change of administration in Washington D.C. This is because, as a candidate, Trump has questioned the value of core tenets of British foreign, security, defence and foreign economic and climate policy.

The United States is the UK’s most important bilateral foreign, security and defence partner. Since the Second World War, successive British governments have intertwined the UK’s intelligence, security and defence capabilities with those of the US. This is seen as bringing significant benefits for Britain. But it has also meant accepting constraints on the UK’s autonomy. The foreign, security and defence policy choices and actions of a new Trump presidency will consequently have a direct bearing on the UK.

During the campaign’s only head-to-head debate with Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, Trump expressed the principle that would guide his putative administration’s foreign policy: “Other countries are going to finally, after 75 years, pay us back for all that we’ve done for the world.”

Elsewhere, Trump questioned the value of the NATO alliance to the United States, expressed extreme scepticism as to the benefits for the US of supporting Ukraine in its defence against Russia, and asserted that he will bring the conflict to a swift end.

These positions are fundamentally at odds with those of the UK as recapitulated by the Labour government since its election in the summer. The new government has made clear it views NATO as the cornerstone of its national security and the Alliance as the bedrock of European security. Diplomatic and military support for Kyiv to fight Russia’s invasion have been reinforced, with military equipment and financing increased under Starmer.

The Labour government’s line on the resolution of the conflict is that the outcome should preserve Ukraine’s ability to make its own choice on its defence and security arrangements, and London supports its accession as a member of NATO.

NATO scepticism was also a feature of Trump’s first term in office, but was mitigated by the actions of European governments, the NATO Secretary General, figures within the administration, and legislators in Congress. There will not be same line up during the second term. The Republicans look likely to have control of both Houses of Congress and Trump’s positions on NATO and support for Ukraine have been backed strongly by his party’s representatives.

Figures advising Trump have suggested that the Alliance needs to be shaken up including floating the idea that those making insufficient financial contributions losing U.S. security guarantees in a ‘two-tier’ NATO.

The current arrangements for managing support for Ukraine are predicated on US leadership and the commitment of US military resources. Even when faced with a six month hold up of military assistance to Ukraine by the US congress, Europeans could not compensate for the loss of US support.

Support for Ukraine is a policy developed and pursued by the Biden administration and the UK and its European allies will need to work extremely hard to persuade the new administration to not abruptly adopt a new course of action.

Another key challenge for the UK’s foreign policy will be Trump’s operating style as US President. This presented a challenge during his first administration, when his willingness to publicly pass judgement on British politics (largely via Twitter) was a striking departure from precedent.

There is nothing to suggest that Trump’s appetite for direct public commentary on the affairs of third countries has diminished since. Labour’s attempt to build a relationship with Trump and his team has included a dinner between Starmer and the then candidate for the presidency in September which elicited uncontroversial comments from the diners. The party was subsequently caught up in a controversy over perceived intervention in the campaign, with its activists travelling to the US to work with the Kamala Harris campaign team and generating claims from the Trump campaign that this was electoral interference.

The Prime Minister and President-elect are obviously not ideological soulmates and whether a personal relationship can be established that works to Britain’s diplomatic advantage will be the subject of considerable commentary. The political context for the forthcoming US-UK leadership relationship will be unusually complicated. Elon Musk – who has forcefully expressed his hostile views on the Labour government – was prominent in Trump’s political campaign and will be a  possible influence on the new administration. And Reform Party leader and MP Nigel Farage has sought to position himself as an interlocutor between the Prime Minister and Trump.

Finally, Trump has indicated he will significantly increase tariffs on US imports. In this area, Britain will face a different situation to other European allies being outside the EU’s trade policy and pursuing its own trade policy. The UK will want to avoid being bundled in with the punitive tariffs on EU trade Trump has threatened.

But the UK may be under pressure to fall into line with an expected strengthening of US restrictions on trade with China. The expectation that Trump will pursue a more hawkish position on China would look to be at odds with a Labour government which is pursuing a cautious policy. This could be an area in which the UK government, alongside other Europeans, is pressured into aligning with the expected tough position of the Trump administration. Trump’s unequivocal support for Israel’s military action in Gaza and Lebanon may also be an issue of tension in UK-US relations where the Labour government moved to a less supportive stance than its Conservative predecessor.

In the short term, the UK will be preoccupied with deepening relationships with key figures in Trump’s presidential transitional team to create conduits for understanding and – to be hoped – a degree of influence. In the longer term, the challenge for the UK will be to maintain its key bilateral relationship amidst the shifts in US society, politics and operation of its democracy that are personified by Trump’s election victory.

This commentary was first published by the UK in a Changing Europe.